German intelligence report on Russia

 German intelligence reports paint a stark and concerning picture of Russia's strategic intentions and military build-up, suggesting that by the end of the decade, Russia could be prepared for a large-scale conventional war against NATO. This assessment, primarily from Germany's Federal Intelligence Service (BND) and the Bundeswehr, emphasizes that Moscow views the West as a "systemic enemy" and is actively re-orienting its military and economic capabilities towards a potential long-term confrontation.

One of the central tenets of these reports is that Russia will not be satisfied with its gains in Ukraine. Should the conflict in Ukraine conclude, particularly in a manner favorable to Moscow, German intelligence warns that Russia's military resources, currently heavily engaged on Ukrainian territory, could be rapidly redeployed to NATO's eastern flank. This includes areas bordering the Baltic states, where the threat of limited military action to test NATO's resolve and Article 5 commitments is considered a distinct possibility even before a full-scale confrontation. The BND chief, Bruno Kahl, has specifically highlighted the period of 2029-2030 as a critical window during which Russia could be militarily ready to launch such an attack.

Despite significant losses incurred during the war in Ukraine and the impact of Western sanctions, German intelligence indicates that Russia's military-industrial complex is not only recovering but is now producing more equipment than is strictly necessary for the ongoing conflict. This surplus production, coupled with a dizzying increase in military spending—projected to reach approximately €120 billion in 2025, or over 6% of GDP, nearly quadrupling its 2021 defense budget—underscores Russia's commitment to reconstituting and expanding its military might. Plans to increase the size of the Russian Armed Forces to 1.5 million soldiers by 2026, and to boost personnel, weapons, and military equipment near NATO borders by 30-50% compared to 2022 levels, further illustrate this alarming trend.

Beyond conventional military expansion, German intelligence also highlights Russia's increasing use of unconventional tactics, including espionage, sabotage, and disinformation campaigns against Western nations, particularly Germany. These activities are designed to disrupt support for Ukraine and sow discord within NATO, with targets ranging from military supply lines and training facilities to critical infrastructure. There have been reports of increased Russian espionage and sabotage in Germany, involving drone surveillance of sensitive locations and attempts to recruit individuals, including from organized crime, for disruptive operations. This "hybrid warfare" approach is seen as a prelude to, or accompanying measure for, more overt military actions.

The underlying geopolitical objective, according to German intelligence, is Russia's desire to revert to a world order reminiscent of the 1990s, where its sphere of influence expanded westward and potentially included a significant reduction or withdrawal of US military presence in Europe. This ambitious and revisionist agenda underscores the perceived systemic conflict between Russia and the West. While acknowledging that Russia is not yet in a position to wage a full-scale war against the entire NATO alliance in the immediate term, the trajectory of its military build-up and stated intentions strongly suggest that such a capability could be achieved by the end of the decade. This assessment serves as a critical warning, urging NATO members, especially Germany as a key supporter of Ukraine, to bolster their defensive capabilities and prepare for a potentially more aggressive and militarily capable Russia in the coming years.