What type of confrontation will arise in future between Russia and Western countries

 Predicting the exact nature of future conflicts is inherently difficult, but based on current trends and expert analyses, several types of wider conflict could arise between Ukraine and Russia:

1. Prolonged War of Attrition with Lowered Intensity:

 * This is considered a highly probable outcome by many analysts (e.g., GLOBSEC).

 * Both sides face resource depletion, leading to a reduction in the intensity of fighting, but the conflict continues in a grinding, protracted manner.

 * The goal for Russia would likely remain the subjugation of Ukraine, while Ukraine would continue to fight for its sovereignty and territorial integrity.

 * This scenario implies a long-term, low-level conflict with intermittent flare-ups, drone attacks, and missile strikes, rather than large-scale ground offensives.

2. Escalation to a Hybrid World War III:

 * Some analyses suggest a possibility of the conflict expanding into a "Hybrid Type World War III," where Russian impunity encourages other global conflicts.

 * This could involve increased cyber warfare, disinformation campaigns, and proxy conflicts in other regions, with Russia and its allies clashing with Western powers and their partners.

 * Direct military confrontation between Russia and NATO, while a significant risk, is generally seen as an extreme scenario that both sides are actively trying to avoid due to the catastrophic implications of nuclear escalation.

3. "Frozen Conflict" Scenario:

 * This would involve a cessation of active hostilities along a defined front line, but without a formal peace agreement or resolution of underlying political issues.

 * The conflict would effectively be "frozen," with periodic skirmishes and a constant threat of renewed fighting.

 * This could involve Russia retaining control of occupied territories, and Ukraine continuing to push for their liberation through diplomatic and other means.

4. Intensified Conventional Warfare:

 * While resource depletion is a factor, there's always a risk of renewed large-scale conventional offensives if either side perceives a strategic advantage or a significant shift in external support.

 * This could involve a renewed push by Russia to gain more territory or by Ukraine to reclaim occupied lands, leading to a surge in casualties and destruction.

Factors Influencing Future Conflict:

 * Western Support for Ukraine: The level and consistency of military, financial, and political aid from Western countries will be crucial in determining Ukraine's ability to resist and potentially reclaim territory.

 * Internal Russian Dynamics: Russia's domestic political and economic stability, as well as public support for the war, could influence its long-term strategy.

 * Technological Advancements: The war has seen rapid innovation in drone warfare, electronic warfare, and other military technologies. Future conflicts will likely be shaped by the continued evolution and deployment of these technologies.

 * Geopolitical Landscape: The broader global power dynamics, including the relationship between the US, China, and Europe, will undoubtedly impact the Ukraine-Russia conflict.

 * Negotiated Settlement: While difficult given the current stances, a future negotiated settlement, even if it's a "patchy peace process," could lead to a different type of conflict or a temporary cessation of hostilities. However, Russia's core objectives, which include preventing Ukraine from becoming an independent and sovereign country aligned with the West, make a truly lasting peace challenging.

In summary, a prolonged war of attrition with lowered intensity seems to be the most probable future scenario, but the potential for escalation into a wider "hybrid" conflict or even renewed intense conventional warfare remains a significant concern. The long-term trajectory will depend on a complex interplay of military, political, economic, and technological factors.