Is there any chanceof military build between west and Russia in future after Ukraine war

 The potential for a military buildup between Russia and NATO following the ongoing war in Ukraine is not merely a possibility but a stark reality that has been unfolding and is likely to intensify. The conflict in Ukraine has fundamentally reshaped the Euro-Atlantic security landscape, plunging Russia-NATO relations to their lowest point since the Cold War. This breakdown is driven by deep-seated distrust, opposing geopolitical objectives, and a renewed emphasis on conventional military power.

NATO, having declared Russia a "direct threat to Euro-Atlantic security" at its 2022 Madrid summit, has already undertaken significant steps to bolster its deterrence and defense posture, particularly along its eastern flank. This includes the establishment and reinforcement of multinational battlegroups in countries like Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia. These forces, initially deployed in 2017 and significantly expanded after the 2022 invasion, serve as a "tripwire," ensuring that any aggression against a NATO member would immediately involve multiple Allied nations, thus triggering a collective response under Article 5. Furthermore, there's been a noticeable increase in military exercises, the deployment of advanced weaponry, and a renewed focus on improving interoperability among Allied forces. The long-term plan involves not just temporary deployments but potentially larger, more permanently stationed forces capable of a robust defense.

From Russia's perspective, NATO's eastward expansion and its increased military presence are viewed as existential threats. Moscow has consistently articulated its belief that NATO is encroaching on its sphere of influence and that the alliance's military activities are directly aimed at undermining Russian security. The war in Ukraine itself, from Russia's viewpoint, is partly a response to what it perceives as NATO's attempts to bring Ukraine into its orbit. Therefore, Russia is also actively engaged in its own military buildup and modernization efforts. Despite significant losses incurred in Ukraine, reports suggest that Russia is reconstituting its military capabilities at a faster rate than anticipated, focusing on increasing personnel, forming new divisions, and modernizing its strategic and conventional arsenals. The re-establishment of the Moscow and Leningrad military districts, overseeing operations on the European front, signals a clear intent to fortify its western borders.

The nature of this buildup is multifaceted. It's not just about troop numbers and equipment; it encompasses hybrid warfare tactics, including cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and even sabotage, which NATO officials have repeatedly warned about. Russia has been accused of attempting to destabilize NATO members through these means, adding another layer to the military tensions. The rhetoric from both sides remains confrontational, with Russian officials often framing the conflict in Ukraine as a proxy war against NATO and the West. This narrative further justifies their own military escalations and deepens the security dilemma, where each side's defensive measures are perceived as offensive by the other, leading to a continuous cycle of arms build-up.

Moreover, the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO has significantly altered the geopolitical landscape in the Baltic Sea region, extending NATO's direct border with Russia. This development, while strengthening NATO's collective defense, is undoubtedly seen by Russia as a further provocation, likely leading to a corresponding increase in Russian military presence and capabilities in the region, including in its Kaliningrad exclave. The Black Sea region also remains a flashpoint, with Russia's naval presence and actions impacting regional stability.

In the long term, the prospects of de-escalation appear dim. Both Russia and NATO are entrenched in their positions, with fundamental disagreements on the future of European security. NATO is committed to supporting Ukraine and maintaining its open-door policy, while Russia remains determined to achieve its military objectives and demands a rollback of NATO's presence to its 1997 borders. This ideological chasm, coupled with ongoing military operations in Ukraine and the persistent threat of hybrid attacks, makes a continued, and potentially intensified, military buildup between Russia and NATO an almost certainty. While a direct conventional conflict between Russia and NATO is still considered an extreme scenario due to the risk of nuclear escalation, the ongoing military posturing, increased readiness, and continuous modernization efforts will define the security environment in Europe for the foreseeable future.