What type of security guarantees Ukraine demand from NATO after ceasefire with Russia

 Following a potential ceasefire with Russia, Ukraine's demands for security guarantees from NATO would be comprehensive and aimed at ensuring its long-term sovereignty and territorial integrity, preventing future aggression, and fostering a stable, prosperous future. These demands are rooted in Ukraine's bitter experience and the understanding that without robust guarantees, any ceasefire could merely be a pause before renewed conflict. While direct NATO membership remains a primary, aspirational goal for Ukraine, the immediate post-ceasefire demands might focus on concrete, legally binding commitments from NATO members that offer a credible deterrent.

Firstly, Ukraine would demand ironclad, legally binding security assurances from key NATO member states. This goes beyond mere political declarations and would likely entail bilateral or multilateral treaties that commit these nations to come to Ukraine's aid in the event of any future Russian aggression. These agreements would ideally include provisions for rapid military assistance, intelligence sharing, and defensive aid, akin to a modified Article 5 commitment without full NATO membership. The aim would be to create a deterrence mechanism so potent that Russia would be dissuaded from any further incursions. This would also likely involve a clear definition of what constitutes an act of aggression that would trigger these guarantees.

Secondly, Ukraine would push for continued and enhanced military assistance, including the provision of advanced weaponry, training, and equipment. This isn't just about immediate defense but about building a formidable, modern military capable of deterring and, if necessary, repelling any future attacks independently. This would encompass air defense systems, long-range precision strike capabilities, modern artillery, armored vehicles, and naval assets. The emphasis would be on ensuring a consistent supply chain and joint military exercises to integrate Ukraine's forces more closely with NATO standards and interoperability. This level of military support would be crucial to ensure Ukraine's self-sufficiency in defense.

Thirdly, a critical demand would be for robust air and missile defense systems to create a protective "sky shield" over Ukrainian territory. The war has highlighted Ukraine's vulnerability to aerial bombardments and missile strikes. Therefore, a post-ceasefire agreement would likely include commitments from NATO members to provide advanced air defense technologies, such as Patriot systems, NASAMS, and other layered defenses, along with the necessary training and maintenance support. This would reduce the risk of future large-scale destruction and civilian casualties, allowing for reconstruction and economic recovery.

Fourthly, Ukraine would insist on mechanisms for accountability and enforcement of any peace agreement. This would involve international oversight and verification missions to monitor the ceasefire, troop withdrawals, and border security. Ukraine would likely seek a strong UN Security Council resolution or similar international framework to underpin these mechanisms, ensuring that violations are swiftly identified and met with predetermined consequences, such as re-imposition of sanctions or activated security guarantees. The goal is to prevent Russia from using a ceasefire as an opportunity to regroup and rearm.

Finally, Ukraine would seek long-term economic and financial support for reconstruction and recovery, accompanied by a clear path towards Euro-Atlantic integration, even if full NATO membership isn't immediately granted. While not strictly a security guarantee in the military sense, economic stability and integration with Western institutions are vital for Ukraine's long-term security. This would involve substantial financial aid, investment, and assistance in rebuilding infrastructure, industries, and social services. Furthermore, a clear roadmap towards EU membership and closer ties with NATO, including continued political dialogue and cooperation on defense reforms, would serve as a powerful signal of Ukraine's future trajectory and reinforce its security. This multifaceted approach aims to build a resilient, secure, and democratic Ukraine that can thrive post-conflict.