Who Is Responsible for the Ukraine War? A Comprehensive Analysis

Who Is Responsible for the Ukraine War? A Comprehensive Analysis

Introduction

The Ukraine war, particularly following Russia’s full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, has become one of the most devastating conflicts in the 21st century. It has not only brought widespread destruction to Ukraine but also reshaped international politics, destabilized energy markets, and heightened the risks of a broader global conflict. As the war continues, a crucial question resonates in global discourse: Who is responsible for the Ukraine war?

Responsibility in international conflicts is multi-dimensional, encompassing political decisions, historical grievances, security dilemmas, and failures of diplomacy. This report explores the roots of the conflict, the roles of key actors, and assesses responsibility from historical, legal, and moral perspectives. Special attention is given to Russia’s actions, the West’s influence, NATO’s expansion, and Ukraine’s strategic choices.

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1. Historical Background of the Conflict

1.1 Early Soviet Legacy and Ukrainian Sovereignty

Ukraine’s modern identity has been shaped by centuries of control under various empires, including the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union. In 1991, Ukraine declared independence from the USSR, supported by over 90% of voters in a national referendum. This marked a significant turning point in Eastern European geopolitics.

While independence was widely recognized, Russia's political class, including future President Vladimir Putin, never fully accepted Ukraine’s autonomy, especially its potential alignment with the West.

1.2 NATO Expansion and Russia's Grievances

Following the Cold War, NATO expanded eastward, incorporating former Soviet and Warsaw Pact countries, such as Poland, Hungary, and the Baltic States. Russia consistently viewed this expansion as a threat to its national security.

Although NATO emphasized its defensive nature, Putin and the Russian elite interpreted the alliance’s growth as strategic encirclement. Ukraine’s growing aspirations to join NATO, particularly after 2008, became a red line for Moscow.

1.3 Euromaidan and the 2014 Turning Point

In 2013–14, mass protests erupted in Ukraine (the Euromaidan movement) after President Viktor Yanukovych refused to sign an association agreement with the European Union under pressure from Moscow. The revolution led to Yanukovych’s ousting and a pro-European government.

In response, Russia annexed Crimea in March 2014 and supported separatist movements in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, initiating the first phase of the war. This marked a clear violation of international law and laid the groundwork for the 2022 invasion.

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2. Russia’s Role and Responsibility

2.1 The Invasion of 2022

On February 24, 2022, President Putin launched a full-scale military invasion of Ukraine, citing the need to "demilitarize and denazify" the country. The stated goals were vague, yet the action constituted a breach of Ukraine’s sovereignty and the UN Charter.

2.2 Russia’s Narrative

The Kremlin’s justifications included:

Alleged persecution of Russian-speaking populations in Eastern Ukraine.

Preventing Ukraine’s NATO membership.

“Correcting historical mistakes” that allowed Ukrainian independence.

Countering Western encroachment on Russia’s sphere of influence.

However, independent investigations and international law experts found these reasons to be unsubstantiated. Ukraine had not threatened Russia militarily, and NATO had not made immediate plans to induct Ukraine.

2.3 Violations of International Law

Russia's actions represent multiple violations:

Breach of the UN Charter (Article 2(4)) which prohibits the use of force.

Violation of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, where Russia pledged to respect Ukraine’s sovereignty in exchange for nuclear disarmament.

Crimes of aggression and war crimes committed during the conflict.

2.4 Personal Responsibility of Vladimir Putin

President Putin is the central architect of the war. His speeches and orders reveal a personal ideology viewing Ukraine as an artificial state. His control over Russian media, military, and legislature means the decision to invade was not the product of institutional consensus but top-down authoritarian command.

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3. Ukraine’s Role in the Escalation

3.1 NATO Aspirations and Domestic Politics

While Ukraine had the sovereign right to choose its alliances, its consistent push towards NATO irritated Russia. In 2008, NATO declared that Ukraine "will become a member" in the future—a declaration that Russia strongly opposed.

Ukraine’s internal political instability—frequent changes in leadership, corruption, and varying public support for NATO—also added to geopolitical tensions.

3.2 Treatment of Russian Speakers

Russia claims that Ukraine suppressed the rights of Russian-speaking minorities. While Ukraine did pass laws promoting the Ukrainian language, international observers found no evidence of systemic oppression or genocide.

This narrative was used as a pretext by Russia to justify intervention, but it lacks factual backing.

3.3 Military Response and Sovereignty Assertion

Once attacked, Ukraine defended its sovereignty. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy refused Russian demands for neutrality and territorial concessions, reflecting national consensus. Ukraine's resistance, including appeals to Western support, should not be confused with responsibility for initiating the war.

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4. NATO and Western Nations: Partial Responsibility?

4.1 NATO’s Eastward Expansion

NATO’s expansion after the Cold War is often cited by analysts as a factor provoking Russia. From Moscow’s perspective, each new member brought NATO forces closer to its borders, reducing strategic depth.

However, NATO’s expansion was voluntary—Eastern European countries applied for membership fearing Russian aggression. The alliance’s open-door policy and Article 5 commitments aimed to ensure mutual defense, not offensive posture.

4.2 Western Diplomacy and Missed Opportunities

Critics argue that the West missed opportunities to negotiate a security architecture that could have addressed Russia’s concerns. For example, repeated refusals to offer firm timelines or security guarantees to Ukraine and ambiguous diplomacy may have added to miscalculations.

4.3 Arming Ukraine

Before 2022, Western military support to Ukraine was limited. However, after the invasion, countries like the U.S., U.K., Poland, and Germany provided billions in military aid. This support was defensive and in response to the invasion, not a prelude to it.

Therefore, while the West’s policies may have contributed to strategic tensions, they cannot be equated with initiating war.

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5. International Legal Assessment of Responsibility

5.1 United Nations Perspective

The UN General Assembly passed multiple resolutions affirming Ukraine’s sovereignty and condemning Russia’s aggression. In March 2022, 141 countries voted to denounce the invasion, signaling near-global consensus on Russia’s responsibility.

5.2 International Criminal Court (ICC)

The ICC issued an arrest warrant for President Putin in 2023, citing unlawful deportation of children. Though the court’s jurisdiction is limited, this marked a clear attribution of personal criminal responsibility.

5.3 International Court of Justice (ICJ)

Ukraine filed a case at the ICJ accusing Russia of falsely using genocide allegations as a pretext for war. The court issued provisional measures urging Russia to cease hostilities, indicating the unacceptability of its justifications.

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6. Geopolitical Analysis: Shared and Unequal Responsibility

6.1 Asymmetry of Power and Action

Russia, as a nuclear superpower with veto power at the UN, bears primary responsibility for launching an unprovoked war. Ukraine, despite its political flaws and strategic choices, did not initiate aggression.

6.2 Moral and Ethical Responsibility

From a moral standpoint, the intentional bombing of civilians, forced deportations, and systematic violations of human rights by Russia reflect a deeply unethical approach to warfare.

6.3 Western Realism vs. Idealism

Some Western policies, especially those promoting liberal values and open alliances, may have underestimated Russia’s threat perception. Realist critics argue that a more balanced security framework could have avoided escalation, but this remains speculative.

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7. Public Opinion and Media Influence

7.1 Russian Public and Propaganda

Russian state media portrays the war as a defensive operation against NATO and fascists. This disinformation shapes public opinion and reduces internal resistance.

7.2 Ukrainian Resistance and Identity

The war has galvanized Ukrainian national identity. Polls show increasing support for EU and NATO membership and rejection of Russian dominance.

7.3 Western Media and Narrative Control

Western media has largely framed the conflict as a battle between democracy and authoritarianism. While largely accurate, it sometimes oversimplifies complex historical relationships.

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8. Conclusion: Assigning Responsibility

8.1 Primary Responsibility: The Russian Federation

Russia is overwhelmingly responsible for initiating the 2022 invasion. Its breach of international law, disregard for Ukrainian sovereignty, and aggressive military campaign make it the principal aggressor.

8.2 Individual Responsibility: Vladimir Putin and the Russian Leadership

Putin’s autocratic control and ideological narrative render him individually responsible. His decisions directly led to the war’s outbreak and escalation.

8.3 Partial Contributing Factors

NATO expansion may have heightened tensions but did not justify war.

Ukraine’s Western alignment was within its sovereign rights.

Western diplomatic failures contributed to miscalculations but cannot absolve Russian aggression.

8.4 The Importance of Nuance

While acknowledging strategic missteps by all sides, the burden of responsibility lies squarely with those who used force, violated treaties, and dismissed peaceful alternatives.

Final Reflection

Assigning responsibility is not merely an academic exercise—it forms the basis for justice, reparations, and peace-building. History will judge this war not only by its devastation but by how the world responded to its causes and consequences.