Why putin change Russian nuclear doctrine during Ukraine war
Vladimir Putin's decision to change or reconsider Russia’s nuclear doctrine during the Ukraine war is driven by a combination of military, strategic, psychological, and geopolitical factors. While Russia has not officially adopted a completely new doctrine as of mid-2025, there have been notable signals and shifts in posture and statements that suggest a recalibration of its nuclear policy. Here's a detailed explanation of why this is happening:
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1. Perception of Existential Threat
Russia’s 2020 nuclear doctrine already allowed for nuclear use in response to "existential threats".
During the Ukraine war, Putin has portrayed NATO support for Ukraine—such as arms supplies and intelligence sharing—as an indirect form of warfare against Russia.
By adjusting nuclear policy, Russia aims to signal resolve and raise the stakes to deter Western intervention or escalation.
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2. Conventional Military Setbacks
Russian forces have faced unexpected resistance and setbacks on the battlefield.
This has exposed weaknesses in Russia’s conventional military power, making nuclear weapons a more central part of its deterrence and coercion strategy.
By modifying the doctrine, Russia emphasizes its willingness to use tactical nuclear weapons if conventional defeat seems likely in key territories like Crimea.
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3. Deterrence Signaling to the West
Putin’s repeated references to nuclear weapons serve a strategic communication purpose:
To warn NATO against deeper involvement.
To influence public opinion in Europe and the U.S. by stirring fear of nuclear escalation.
A change in doctrine provides legal and strategic backing for such threats.
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4. Integration of Tactical Nuclear Weapons
Russia has one of the world’s largest arsenals of non-strategic (tactical) nuclear weapons.
During the Ukraine war, Russia conducted nuclear drills and deployed tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus.
A revised doctrine may lower the threshold for their use in regional conflicts, aligning doctrine with actual deployment practices.
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5. Preemptive Use Doctrine Consideration
Russian officials and media have discussed a "preemptive strike" doctrine—striking first if a threat is imminent.
This is in contrast to previous emphasis on retaliatory use.
The war has increased Russia’s paranoia about sudden NATO actions, leading to doctrinal flexibility that could permit earlier nuclear use.
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6. Domestic Political Messaging
Nuclear posturing serves internal purposes too:
It bolsters Putin’s image as a strong leader defending Russian sovereignty.
It diverts attention from military failures by projecting power and defiance.
It rallies nationalist support by suggesting Russia will never capitulate.
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7. Erosion of Arms Control Agreements
The collapse of key agreements like INF Treaty (2019) and New START’s uncertain future has created a strategic vacuum.
Without constraints, Russia has more room to develop and threaten use of new systems (like nuclear-capable hypersonic missiles).
A revised doctrine adapts to this new, less regulated strategic environment.
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8. Psychological Warfare and Escalation Control
By introducing ambiguity into its doctrine, Russia seeks to control escalation through fear.
This keeps adversaries uncertain about the exact conditions under which Russia might use nuclear weapons, complicating NATO decision-making.
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Conclusion
Putin’s move to adjust Russia’s nuclear doctrine during the Ukraine war reflects a multi-layered strategy:
Compensating for conventional military weaknesses.
Strengthening deterrence.
Using nuclear threats as tools of coercive diplomacy.
Preparing for a long-term confrontation with NATO.
The evolution of Russia's nuclear doctrine is not just about warfighting—it’s about reshaping the geopolitical environment through fear, uncertainty, and psychological leverage.
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