Current military situation in Ukraine
As of December 25, 2025, the war in Ukraine has entered its fourth winter, characterized by a grueling war of attrition on the ground and an intensifying diplomatic push for a ceasefire. While the frontlines have seen only incremental shifts throughout the year, the conflict remains a high-intensity struggle defined by massive drone deployments, deep-strike campaigns against energy infrastructure, and the involvement of international actors such as North Korea. Ukraine currently faces its most challenging winter yet as Russia continues a systematic campaign to dismantle the national power grid, leading to widespread blackouts and humanitarian distress across the country.
The Military Situation and Frontline Dynamics
On the battlefield, the conflict remains centered in the Donbas region, where Russian forces have maintained a slow but persistent offensive. By late 2025, Russian troops have consolidated control over the strategic fortress city of Pokrovsk and recently captured the town of Siversk after nearly four years of fighting. These gains have allowed Russia to occupy approximately 19% of Ukrainian territory. A significant development in early 2025 was the recapture of the Kursk region by Russian forces, bolstered by the North Korean 11th Corps, which neutralized the territorial leverage Kyiv had gained during its 2024 incursion. Ukraine has responded with an asymmetric campaign, using long-range maritime and aerial drones to strike Russian oil refineries and naval assets, including a submarine strike near Novorossiysk earlier this month.
Diplomatic Initiatives and the "20-Point Plan"
The diplomatic landscape has shifted significantly following a renewed push for negotiations led by the United States. On December 23, 2025, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy revealed a 20-point peace plan drafted in coordination with Washington and European allies. The proposal explores the possibility of a "frozen" frontline and the creation of demilitarized zones (DMZ) in the east, where international monitors would replace active combat troops. However, major sticking points remain: Russia continues to demand that Ukraine officially renounce its NATO aspirations and cede additional territory in the Donetsk region, while Ukraine insists on ironclad security guarantees and the return of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. As of Christmas Day, Moscow has shown little interest in a holiday truce, recently rejecting a ceasefire proposal from the Vatican.
Humanitarian and Economic Impact
The humanitarian cost of the war continues to climb, with estimates suggesting that over 10.6 million Ukrainians—nearly a quarter of the pre-war population—remain displaced either internally or as refugees abroad. The "energy war" has become a central pillar of the conflict; Russian missile and drone barrages have forced nearly 40% of Ukraine's energy capacity offline, leaving millions to rely on backup generators and international aid for heating and water. Despite these hardships, Ukraine received a major economic boost in December with the approval of a €90 billion EU loan, intended to stabilize the economy and fund reconstruction through 2026.
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