Why Russia think that Ukraine war is a threats for their sovereignty

 Russia perceives the Ukraine war as a threat to its sovereignty for a complex mix of historical, geopolitical, and security-related reasons. From the Russian leadership’s perspective, particularly under President Vladimir Putin, the war is not simply a conflict over territory but a fundamental battle over Russia's place in the world, its sphere of influence, and its national identity. Moscow believes that Western involvement in Ukraine is part of a broader strategy to weaken, encircle, and eventually destabilize Russia itself.

One of the central narratives promoted by the Kremlin is that the West, especially NATO and the United States, has systematically tried to bring Ukraine into the Western fold, politically, economically, and militarily. Russia sees NATO’s eastward expansion since the end of the Cold War as a betrayal of what it claims were informal assurances given to Soviet leaders in the early 1990s that NATO would not move “one inch eastward.” Although those assurances were never codified in any treaty, Moscow uses them to argue that NATO’s presence near its borders is provocative and threatening. The prospect of Ukraine joining NATO has been portrayed in Russian rhetoric as the final red line—one that, if crossed, would allow a hostile military alliance to place troops, missiles, and other assets directly on Russia’s western border. For the Kremlin, this is not only a strategic threat but a direct challenge to its sovereignty and national security.

Another aspect of Russia’s concern lies in the ideological and cultural dimension of the Ukraine war. Ukraine’s turn toward the European Union and NATO is viewed by Russian authorities as a rejection of shared Slavic and Orthodox Christian heritage, which the Kremlin has long used to promote the idea of a "Russkiy Mir" or "Russian World"—a sphere of Russian influence that includes Ukraine, Belarus, and other post-Soviet states. When Ukrainians chose to pursue a Western-oriented path, particularly after the 2014 Maidan revolution, Moscow saw it as the result of Western manipulation, not a legitimate democratic choice. This perception led Russia to believe that the West is trying to export its political model—liberal democracy—into Russia’s backyard, and potentially into Russia itself, threatening the stability of Putin’s rule and the political system he has built.

The Kremlin also views the war through the lens of color revolutions and regime change. Russia's leadership believes that the West has a pattern of supporting revolutions in post-Soviet states to install governments friendly to Washington and hostile to Moscow. They see Ukraine's political transformation not only as an external threat but as a warning of what could happen inside Russia. If Ukraine, a country with deep cultural and historical ties to Russia, succeeds in establishing a Western-style democracy, it may inspire similar movements within Russia. This internal threat to regime stability is interpreted by Moscow as an existential challenge to its sovereignty—not just in a legal or territorial sense, but in terms of maintaining control over its political future.

In this context, Russia sees the Ukraine war as a battle for survival in the face of perceived Western aggression and ideological encroachment. The conflict, in the Russian view, is not about imperial ambition but about defending its borders, identity, and political system. Therefore, the Ukraine war is seen not merely as a regional dispute, but as a decisive confrontation with the West that could determine the future of Russia’s sovereignty and global status.